79ef3d7f-d0ec-4f9c-8dc2-44bb345867ea
0%
...

UBUI Updated Playbook: Turning Tariff Threat into Strategic Opportunity Through A Bold U.S.–Bangladesh Partnership Agenda

2025-07-08

TL;DR – Executive Summary Table

SectionKey Insight
ContextU.S. has announced a 35–37% tariff on Bangladeshi exports, effective August 1.
Risk to Bangladesh$6B+ in export revenue and 4–5 million jobs are at immediate risk.
What the U.S. WantsPolitical wins: LNG, agriculture, defense exports, and regulatory access.
Peer BenchmarkingVietnam, Indonesia, and Philippines have advanced bold, optics-driven deals.
Tri-Vue InsightBD’s existing offers are too small; response must be fast, strategic, and bold.
Game Theory OutputOnly a reciprocal, high-visibility package will achieve tariff relief.
BD’s Strategic OfferLNG deals, defense procurement, Boeing orders, U.S. agri redirection, tech access.
BD’s Ask from U.S.Permanent tariff suspension, GSP reinstatement, deeper trade partnership.
If SuccessfulJobs saved, exports preserved, investor confidence gained, strategic alignment.
Bottom LineBangladesh must act now with scale and credibility—or risk being outpaced.

I. Introduction & Objective

Bangladesh is at a crossroads.

With the U.S. set to impose a 35–37% tariff on Bangladeshi exports starting August 1, 2025, the country faces its most serious trade challenge in over a decade. The stakes are enormous: $6 billion in exports, 4–5 million jobs, and the country’s dominant position in the U.S. apparel market.

This is more than a policy issue, it’s a strategic reckoning.

The U.S. isn’t asking for aid or sweeping reforms. What it seeks are mutually beneficial deals. Ones that deliver domestic wins in energy, defense, agriculture, and market access. In this high-stakes moment, symbolism alone won’t suffice. Bangladesh must lead with substance, not just signals.

UBUI’s objective: Equip Bangladesh with a playbook to move fast, negotiate smart, and offer a credible, optics-rich trade package that delivers bilateral benefits and secures long-term market access.


II. Tri-Vue Situation Analysis

A. Observable Layer: What’s Happening?

  • President Trump has greenlit steep tariffs on Bangladesh’s exports—predominantly garments.
  • The tariff will be implemented August 1, 2025.
  • Bangladesh enjoys a $6B+ trade surplus with the U.S.; GSP status is still suspended.

B. Strategic Layer: What’s Actually Going On?

  • The U.S. wants high-visibility wins ahead of the 2026 election: LNG exports, Boeing orders, Midwest farmer support, and strategic optics.
  • BD’s current offers like lifting tariffs on limited U.S. imports are commercially insignificant.
  • Peer nations are rapidly crafting multi-sectoral, reciprocal deals that win U.S. favor and media coverage.

C. Power Layer: What’s the Move?

Bangladesh must stop playing defensively and:

  • Bundle big deals in energy, defense, agriculture, and digital markets.
  • Anchor the ask in GSP reinstatement and tariff waiver protocol.
  • Match the pace and credibility of Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines.


III. Peer Benchmarking – Lessons from Other Countries

Here’s how key peer nations are staying ahead—and what Bangladesh must learn fast.

CountryStrategic DealsTactical PlaybookLesson for Bangladesh
Vietnam– 50 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft (~$8–11B)
– Starlink license fast-tracked
– LNG equipment via GE Vernova
Combined commercial scale with political symbolism ensured U.S. firms, brands, and political names were part of the deals.Deliver big, highly visible packages that align with U.S. corporate and political interests tech, aviation, optics.
Indonesia– $34B package across LNG, wheat, Boeing, digital infra, and minerals
– Garuda’s potential 75-jet Boeing deal
– Surge in U.S. wheat imports
Positioned itself as a long-term strategic partner, not a defensive negotiator. Spread investments across optics-heavy sectors.Match scale with breadth, anchor long-term economic vision through bundled, sectoral plays.
Thailand– LNG import commitment (~2M tons/year)
– Boeing order (~80 aircraft)
– Official 0% tariff proposal for U.S. imports
– Surplus reduction pledge (70% in 5 years)
Framed the deal around reciprocity and long-term rebalancing. Appealed to both economics and symbolism.Tie offers to surplus reduction and U.S. job creation, and position Bangladesh as a reform-minded player.
Philippines– $5.6B defense deal (F-16s, Lockheed systems)Used national security and strategic alignment with the U.S. as leverage. Played into defense optics.Defense offsets can serve as credible tools for surplus reduction and bilateral trust-building.
Egypt– No U.S. trade surplus = exempted from tariffsBenefiting from diverted demand due to ASEAN tariff penalties.Delay is dangerous—others will fill BD’s vacuum in U.S. supply chains.

UBUI’s Analysis: While peer countries have moved quickly to secure high-impact deals, Bangladesh is still shaping its strategic response. The window for action is narrowing and now is the time to move with clarity and conviction.


IV. Game Theory Insight

This isn’t just about trade. It’s about game theory in motion where each side moves based on asymmetric incentives and the pursuit of visible wins. The U.S. values what it can show at home: jobs, exports, and strategic access. Bangladesh must craft a response that aligns with those incentives not just negotiate, but position.

Bangladesh MoveU.S. Perceived ValueOutcome for BD
❌ Do NothingNo export growth; message of passivityTariff proceeds, $6B+ lost, reputational damage
⚠️ Symbolic ConcessionsToo small to register politicallyStill punished; trust deficit increases
✅ Large Purchase PackageMajor export optics; political capitalTariff likely withdrawn; goodwill earned
✅ + Ask for ReciprocityStrategic alignment + opticsGSP reentry, tech access, deeper ties

🎯 Nash Equilibrium: A bold, reciprocal offer from Bangladesh triggers a politically valuable U.S. response, benefitting both economies. Anything less leads to mutual erosion.


V. Recommended Strategic Path for Bangladesh

Rather than overwhelm the negotiation with numbers, Bangladesh should offer a clear, bundled vision aligned with U.S. interests:

1. Energy
  • Long-term LNG imports (15–20 years).
  • Strategic equity in U.S. LNG infrastructure creating American jobs while securing BD energy access.
2. Defense & Security
  • Multi-year defense procurements (air defense, coastal systems).
  • Co-development and training with U.S. defense firms.
3. Agricultural Redirection
  • Redirect raw cotton, wheat, soybean imports toward U.S. suppliers.
  • Anchor the deal as a “midwestern farmer victory.”
4. Aviation & Industrial Equipment
  • Purchase 10–15 Boeing aircraft for Biman and private airlines.
  • Prioritize U.S. manufacturers in locomotives, turbines, and medical equipment.

5. Regulatory Reform & Market Access
  • Fast-track licenses and reform for U.S. fintech, cloud, and telecom players.
  • Enable market access for firms like AWS, Stripe, etc.
The Ask: Reciprocity & Partnership
  • Permanent suspension of tariffs.
  • GSP reinstatement or equivalent preferential access.
  • Strategic economic dialogue mechanism for the next decade.


VI. Strategic Impact on Bangladesh

A bold, reciprocal trade strategy isn’t just about neutralizing tariffs. It’s about shaping Bangladesh’s economic future. The right package can protect jobs, stabilize the macroeconomy, and unlock new partnerships with long-term U.S. allies. Here’s what’s at stake:

Impact AreaStrategic Benefit
Export Stability$6B+ preserved from immediate tariff hit
Job Security4–5M jobs in garments, logistics, and trade ecosystem protected
Forex ResilienceMaintains USD inflow, cushions balance of payments
Investor ConfidenceSignals diplomatic agility and economic maturity
Future LeverageOpens doors for long-term U.S. investment and co-development programs

This is about more than short-term survival. It’s about future-proofing Bangladesh’s access to the world’s largest consumer economy.


VII. Conclusion

Bangladesh has one shot to prove it can act with strategic intent, not diplomatic passivity.

The U.S. wants deals, jobs, and headlines—not memos, delays, or symbolic pledges. And peer countries are already giving them that.

To secure its future, Bangladesh must:

  • Deliver a credible, optics-heavy package
  • Embed reciprocal asks
  • Move faster than others

Failure to act now risks losing not just market access but momentum, reputation, and trust. Let’s act before someone else does.

Prepared By: UBUI Board of Directors


VIII. Appendix: Source References

  • USTR Tariff Notifications, May–July 2025
  • Vietnam Trade Ministry Press Release on Boeing and Starlink, June 2025
  • Indonesia–U.S. Bilateral Deal Briefing, Jakarta Post, July 2025
  • Thai Ministry of Commerce Briefing to ASEAN, June 2025
  • Philippine Ambassador’s CNN Interview on U.S. Trade Diplomacy, July 2025
  • Egypt-U.S. Trade Volume Analysis, African Business Journal, Q2 2025
  • Bangladesh Ministry of Commerce and Petrobangla LNG Demand Forecast, 2025
  • Congressional Bangladesh Caucus Summary, House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee, 2025
  • Sempra Infrastructure LNG Contract Disclosures, June 2025
  • Cheniere Energy Investor Briefing on Asia Commitments, Q2 2025
  • Bloomberg Analysis on U.S.–Asia Aircraft Trade, June 2025
  • U.S. Department of Commerce: Trade with ASEAN Countries Report, 2024
  • Cotton Council International Market Engagement Memo, Spring 2025
  • USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Briefing on Bangladesh Wheat Trade, May 2025
  • Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Indo-Pacific Tracker, 2025